Super Stock Blog

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Stock Market Reaches a Bottom

With the SPY sitting at 108, we have reached weekly and daily lows on the stock market.  Last friday we hit the bottom at 105 meeting the same low of November 2009.  It appears that the bottom has already been matched and it’s time to continue the rally furthur up.  The market appears to have a good chance of moving up monday with good news from the Japanese stock market.  Their GDP has increased 4.5%.  This is a much improved increased from what forecasters thought it would be.

As we have already been on an upward trend for the past year, I highly doubt we will have the continued strength from the past.  Look for continued consolidation as the economy continues to improve but bounce back-and-forth with multiple job loss forecasts.  I will post up some good stock trades later this week.

Stock Market Still Dropping

The stock market has been dropping for the past week.  Gold stocks have taken quite a hit.  We are starting to see real bargains in the precious metals.  Stocks like PAL and CDE are reaching lows not seen since 2009.  I think the technicals say there is still much chance for the stocks to drop more.  The stoichastics show the weekly and daily are at lows, but we have been rising for quite some time.

For those that like to play it safe, it might be a good time to get in some conservative long-term holds.  Pfizer, PFE, and AT&T, T, offer nice dividends for those that do not need money right away and are willing to wait for the stock market and the economy to improve.  I would not be in the boat to be shorting stocks right now unless you’ve known of stocks that have risen too high as of late.

Looking at the SPY, we’ve only hit the monthly low of the stoichastics about once every two years.  It looks like the SPY might drop down to the 102 or 103, but from there on, it should be time to start buying and looking into long-term stock plays.  The market will improve.  The government has put too much cash in it for it to drop to march 2009 lows.

MetroPCS at Bargain Prices

MetroPCS has reached decade low prices.  It already reached the March 2009 lows being at $5 currently.  If you take a look at its earnings, they have continued to bring in profit quarter after quarter.  The Super Bowl ad shows it’s pricing power – for $40 you get unlimited phone minutes, text, and web access.  AT&T is the only closest competitor at $70.  We’re at a recession right now and it’s surprising to see their stock price keep dropping even though they keep bringing in more subscribers.

Investors are selling because they believe Verizon and AT&T have the edge with the biggest network.  However, I seriously doubt they would drop their prices to MetroPCS’s prices.  Their profit margin would be seriously cut if they did.  MetroPCS has a big niche.  It markets to urban cities and it markets a very competitive price and it remains profitable.  I think the current price of $5.88 is a bargain.  There’s a lot more reward vs risk in this stock.


Electronic Arts Outlook Looking Better

Electronic Arts (ERTS) has had a terrible winter quarter.  They had massive layoffs, miserable sales during the holidays, and lowered guidance in January.  Their stock has been punished.  It’s almost at $16 which is very near its all-time 5-year lows which was hit previously in March 2009.  However, I tend to look at the long-term case especially the risk vs rewards.  The last time stocks reached these levels were in the year 2000.

Let’s take a look at it’s financials.  They have had annual losses for 2009 and 2009.  Could they be finally getting out of their cold?  The economy is picking up, but consumers are still not buying.  If you’re unemployed, I’d bet you’d still have $60 to buy a game.  Anyways, long-term wise their financials do not look that good.   They have negative cash flow and net losses for the year.  However their game lineup is strong this year.

Games influence the price.  If Electronic Arts can get a ‘Modern Warfare 2’ effect, they will be able to hit profits again.  You’ve also seen it with Rockstar Games with Grand Theft Auto.  They just released Mass Effect 2 last week.  It has already sold over 2 million copies.  Especially with their lower guidance it makes their stock much average to what it should be priced out.  We’re looking for the future though.  If the games are good, the stock price will move with it.

In 2009, we saw a pretty mediocre lineup: Madden NFL, Battlefield, Fight Night, Dead Space, Tiger Woods Gold, Godfather Part 2, My Sim Party, Nascar Kart Racing, Skate 2, Lord of the Rings, and Mirror’s Edge.  These games did mildly well, some did bad, but none of them were blockbusters.  Here’s what is coming out in March 2010: Command & Conquer 4 (PC), Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (PC, PS3, XBOX).  These are two very strong games.  I’d say for the short-term 6 months there’s money to be made with ERTS.

I’ll be taking a further look into ERTS in the future.  If the market continues dropping, it might be better to wait it out before buying.  The stoichastics have already hit the lows for the daily and weekly.  The RSI(2) is weak also.  There could be continued downside for this stock as the video game industry continues to drop, but the long-term perspective continues to get better.

AT&T and Verizon at Bargain Prices!

You are looking at two big bell companies that will continue to thrive through the recession.  Both give a dividend of 6+% and both have EPS.  I consider them to be Warren Buffet-like stocks.  Looking at the results, they have both increased the EPS as the years have progressed.  AT&T has increased net income year-after-year.  Even though their stock prices have barely moved for the past 5 years their dividend has increased and they continue to be profitable.

I consider them both to be safe bets.  Why hold a bunch of cash in the bank when you can be getting a safe 6% dividend?  You also help stimulate the economy 😉

Short-term things to consider: AT&T has continued to get deals with Apple.  They will be the exclusive provider of 3G for the iPad.  This is a big win as the iPad is a GSM made table.  In the 3rd quarter 2010, Verizon and other phone networks should be getting the iPhone.  This is not for sure as their has been a good relationship of AT&T and Apple.

AT&T’s 10 Year Summary

Verizon’s 10 Year Summary

Nuclear Energy is in Obama’s Policy

Obama is talking currently in his State of the Union address.  He’s endorsing a lot of spending programs to stimulate the economy.  He wishes to cut taxes for small businesses and large businesses alike.  He will give incentives for companies to move their offshore businesses in-house.  He also re-iterated his commitment to alternative energy.  This includes solar, wind, and nuclear energy.

He stated to continue the clean air act that we needed better clean energy programs.  The first topic he stated was building more nuclear energy plants.  I already have endorsed two companies that look good for this, EXC and USU.  Both companies have been dropping since their has not been any news on nuclear programs, but Obama has finally rung the bell to nuclear.  There will be loan funding for nuclear plants in the future and I believe these two companies are great plays.  Exelon has multiple nuclear power plants already in the United States.  They are a profitable nuclear energy company.  Obama would want more of these plants to bring more jobs in the US.  He knows infrastructure will be important to moving forward.  Look for them to continue to grow in the future.

USU, USEC, is a play on the government funding.  They have already been given exclusive access to old nuclear warheads to extract uranium.  They have also been doing extensive R&D to create new nuclear power plants.  I think this company is in great position to be given loan fundings. They already have done their research to create the next nuclear plants through their American Centrifuge program.

Prosperous Times are Ahead for 2010

We have just went through one of the worse periods ever in the United States.  The second great depression has finally past.  It’s time to rebuild.  We, as a nation, will continue to have a flourishing economy.  Better times are ahead, and with that, we will have continued stock growth.
Commodities will continue to become a key player.  The billions of dollars being produced will bring us out of one of the worse catostrophies in US history.  It will bring on an offset of inflation that will beset to become another problem the government will have to control.  We can use this to our advantage.  Oil, gold, platinum, palladium, silver, all these commodities will become more valuable.  We’ve already hit $1200 gold.  We still haven’t seen this record growth in the ‘useful’ metals.  I’m talking the commodities that are used to build things.  As the global economy continues to grow, we will see another surge of industry booms.  This means more demand for oil, more tools to be built with silver, and platinum and palladium being used to build more cars.  Don’t listen to the naysayers.  The dollar might be strengthening now but long-term commodities will become more valuable.
As we continue to get away from fossil fuels we will become more dependent our clean resources.  Natural gas will continue to get more popular.  We have stockpiles of natural gas.  Fractural drilling has brought on one of the largest stock piles of natural gas in the US.  We saw the prices hit rock-bottom in 2009.  Watch the natural gas stocks start moving up like oil has for the past 30 years.
Alternative energy will continue to prosper.  We are in no period to which we can reverse.  It’s not the 1980s where we will hit rock-bottom oil prices.
China is growing at a record pace.  It will need more oil.  Same as other growth counties.  As we use up the last stockpiles of oil we will need to adjust our demand for fossil fuels and move into alternative energies.  Look for wind power, solar power, geothermal energy, and nuclear energy to grow.  We are still figuring out the potential of each.  With Obama money you will see continued growth in all these alternative energies.  Climate change will furthur strengthen the cause for alternative energies.  Diversify.  Put money into good companies and watch your stocks grow as the economy improves.
Healthcare will again become a growing industry.  We have a bunch of boomers that have reached retirement age.  They will need healthcare, retirement centers, and bring another influx of necessary services to help the seniors.  We also have a new government funded health plan that will bring insurance to all the people.  Demand for generics will increase.  Look for major healthcare companies to find ways to make money in these areas.
As people begin working again look for retail to increase.  Look for major stores that will produce affordable goods.  Look to supermarket stocks such as Kroger to grow.  They produce affordable perfumes and other items that people would normally go to malls to buy.  They have diversified their inventory base to produce for affordability and the frugal consumer.  They are producing for the future where we will become a saver nation. Watch for major department stores such as Wal-Mart to continue to be key leaders in their industry.
The banking industry will continue to grow once again.  Banks have finally paid off their TARP money.  Small and medium size banks will consolidate to the bigger Wells-Fargo, Citigroup, JP Morgan, and Bank of America.  Major banks will become the defining financial companies to run our country.  Agree to disagree.  The government will make sure these financial companies stay in business to keep us running.
Prospering times are ahead.  We will have our normal corrections, but let it be known, we have reached the bottom of the economic cycle.  It might take a while to start moving up, but it’s time to position your investments for the future.  Now, let’s make some money!

Bank Stocks Ready to Rise

Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) are both repaying their TARP funds so they can reward their executives with huge salaries and bonuses.  Citigroup made a huge offering this week to sell over $30 billion dollars of common stock.  Bank of America already paid off its $45 billion TARP funds with a $19.3 billion equity offering recently.  Both stocks trade at lows that we won’t see for a long time.  Citigroup went as low as $3.20 recently this week and Bank of America reached a low it set in July at $15.  These prices are valid bargains and with the amount of money the FED is creating you can bet these stocks will go up as inflation-protected stocks.  They also will continue to make more revenue as they release more loans out which the government is encouraging to help create more businesses and jobs.

Coure de houre err.. Coeur d’Alene Mines looking cheap

I got in CDE this morning at $20.60.  However, I changed up my strategy.  I know silver will be a big money maker but I don’t know short-term where it’s headed.  So I bought puts, that’s right, naked $20 puts at 55 cents.  Once it expires on Dec 19, I make some easy dough.  If that backfires, I end up owning the stock for $20 which is a discount of 60 cents.  It ended the day at $20.80 so it looks like my naked put is already doing well.

Last week the US dollar got weak with the economic reports of better unemployment rates and job growth.  I expect even with the better economy we will have to have a weaker dollar.  You can’t justify a strong dollar when the FED is producing billions of dollars to stimulate the economy.  Once of the gold guys stated that gold could up to $8,000.  I don’t expect that to happen but you never know.  This is the first president to break the deficit within three months.  It usually takes a president at one-term (4 years) to break the deficit.

CDE, Coeur d’Alene, released the third quarter earnings earlier this november.  The numbers were not what analysts expected and the stock plummeted to below $19.  Of course, gold and silver kept rising so the stock just had a temporary dip before breaking $23.  If you read the third quarter transcript, the CEO Dennis Wheeler stated they invested the company for $900 gold.  Gold is now over $1,100.  You can bet that their next quarter will be a smashing hit.  They have more mines coming into production than any other junior mining company.  They also are highly invested into silver which will rise with gold and bring up their revenues.

Long-term great trade!

Nuclear Energy is the Future after Cap and Trade

I’m taking a gamble with this play but the risk vs reward looks really good. I’ve been researching the uranium business and it seems like now is a great time to play it. Stockpiles are very high and the demand for uranium is picking up with the future to be nuclear plants. The recent cap and trade proposal will cut many emissions including the coal power plants and oil industries. This will put furthur pressure for alternative energies and nuclear energy. These energy alternatives are very clean and will still be within the bounds of carbon emissions.
I’m looking at USU. It’s the only company currently working with the government. The government is supplying uranium to USEC throught old nuclear warheads. This is the only company getting this benefit. Not only is this helping the environment but it brings over $5 million dollars worth of uranium and helps remove the stockpiles of nuclear waste. Look for this company to get more financing from the government. They also have the new nuclear technology American Centrifuge to utilize for the future US nuclear power plants. All they need is the funding of the Department of Energy. They stand a great chance at getting this loan.
The construction of new nuclear plants would put many unemployed people back to work. It also would be part of Obama’s plan to use clean, renewable energy. France already utilizes 90% of it’s energy from nuclear. China is set to produce more than 10 nuclear power plants. We won’t be caught out of a bright future for cheaper and more clean energy. Expect the US to join the global effort for cleaner energy and USU to be one of the main companies in the United States to bring it.

USU stands at $3.62. The possibility of dropping furthur is really slim. They could get bought out at these prices. Once they get the loan expect this stock to skyrocket to $6. Great long term play!

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